With gains of 643 councillors and 22 authorities, Labour clearly had a good result in Thursday’s local elections. Yet with the BBC and Sky both publishing vote share projections which show the party falling short of an overall majority – winning just shy of 300 seats rather than the necessary 326 – the spectre of a hung parliament looms large over British politics once more.
It was that subject which dominated Sir Keir Starmer’s broadcast round this afternoon. The Labour leader refused seven times in an interview with Sky to rule out a deal with the Liberal Democrats if his party found themselves short of a majority, insisting that he is ‘not answering hypotheticals.’ And while he told the BBC that there would be ‘no deal with the SNP’, he was far less firm when pressed again on the Liberal Democrat question. ‘I want to press on for a Labour majority, that’s what we’re aiming for,’ he said ‘This is a hypothetical question.’
Those answers might be enough to get him through one broadcast round but they will not hold for the next 18 months. Starmer’s team are understandably wary of suggesting that they will have anything other than a decent majority after the next election, given their party’s past experiences. In previous elections, the Conservatives have been ables to exploit fears of a minority government to great effect: most famously in 2015 but also in 1992 when Margaret Thatcher warned that ‘a hung parliament would hang the future of our country.’
There are several reasons to suggest that the SNP threat will be less of a factor in 2024 than it was in 2015. The SNP are now led by Humza Yousaf, a less competent leader than Nicola Sturgeon was in her pomp. The prospect of a second independence referendum has receded and with it, the salience of the SNP threat. Stephen Flynn, the party’s Westminster leader, has mooted the SNP ‘pulling the strings’ of a minority Starmer government. ‘Humza can’t even pull his own party’s strings’ retorts one Conservative MP.
Yet while the SNP threat might be dismissed, questions about a Liberal-Labour pact, coalition or arrangement will not go away so easily. Since Brexit and the Coalition wipe-out, the Liberal Democrats and its supporters have become much more stridently anti-Tory. Deputy leader Daisy Cooper says the removal of the Conservatives from office is now her party’s ‘moral responsibility’.
It’s not just the circumstances facing Keir Starmer and Ed Davey: both men are personally and ideologically compatible, just as David Cameron and Nick Clegg were in 2010. History suggests that when the Liberal Democrats do well, Labour do too. In the run-up to 1997, the last time the Tories lost, Paddy Ashdown and Tony Blair had an informal working relationship together to co-ordinate attacks on the Conservatives to maximum effect. Similar tactics could yield dividends this time too.
Given this, Starmer can expect many more journalists to ask about his party’s coalition plans in the weeks and months to come. And with it will come policy questions too, ranging from Single Market membership to reviving Leveson 2.0. That will bring fresh challenges and a chance for the Tories to exploit the tensions in Starmer’s party ranks.
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