The British weather is improving – and that is bad news for Labour’s migration efforts. For the past five years, the beginning of spring has coincided with an uptick in Channel crossings; ministers expect the same again this summer. It is a phenomena that has reduced a succession of Home Secretaries to little more than weathermen; Yvette Cooper this weekend blamed sunnier conditions for the record number of arrivals this year. So far, 6,632 migrants have reached the UK since January, up from 4,600 at the same point in 2024. The small boats are no longer even that small: people smugglers are now favouring larger vessels, with 98 people crammed into one craft last year.
Ahead of another looming surge, Keir Starmer has therefore done what he likes to do best: convening a summit in London. The Prime Minister – whose new-found love of the international circuit has raised eyebrows in Whitehall – gathered officials from 40 countries together this morning to discuss how best to ‘smash the gangs.’

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