That the welfare bill needs bringing under control is pretty undeniable. According to projections by the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) an unchecked welfare bill could rise over the next five years from £64 billion to £100 billion. That is not to mention the effect on the economy of increasing numbers of people being shunted onto sickness benefits and never expected to work ever again. If the case is made properly, and the focus is kept on the public finances, the government should enjoy widespread support for a policy that trims the welfare state.
Yet there is still a risk that this could all go horribly wrong for the government. And that’s not just because it will cause deep rifts with the parliamentary Labour party, souring the mood for future battles between Downing Street and backbenchers.
From what has been floated this morning in advance of the Prime Minister’s announcement of £7 billion worth of cuts, it seems that the government has a long-term plan to eliminate the distinction between out-of-work benefits and out-of-work disability benefits.
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