Things are lining up nicely for George Osborne’s Autumn Statement next month (and fairly badly for Ed Miliband, who’s making his economic speech today). For the first time since he became Chancellor, he will be able to report forecasts better, not worse, than his previous suggestions. The European Commission has just upped its UK growth forecast for next year to 2.2 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent – the largest upgrade of any European country. The Eurocrats are, of course, just catching up with the changing independent consensus. The graph pictured above (from the Treasury) shows how the consensus for 2014 growth has been revised upwards month after month.
So where will it end up? Michael Saunders at Citi, the analyst whose forecasts we pay closest attention to at CoffeeHouse, is expecting 3 per cent growth next year – and thinks this may be a bit of a pessimistic estimate.
You can see why. Saunders
Get Britain's best politics newsletters
Register to get The Spectator's insight and opinion straight to your inbox. You can then read two free articles each week.
Already a subscriber? Log in
Comments
Join the debate for just $5 for 3 months
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for $5.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just $5 for 3 monthsAlready a subscriber? Log in