Sorry, but Barack Obama’s clearly ahead

Four years ago, on the weekend before the 2008 presidential election, political commentator John McLaughlin asked the four panellists on his show The McLaughlin Group to predict the winner. As Nate Silver says in his excellent book The Signal and the Noise, ‘That one ought not to have required very much thought.’ The polls indicated that Barack Obama was the strong favourite to beat John McCain. For McCain to win, the polls would’ve had to be heavily biased towards Obama — something for which there was no evidence. But of the four panellists, only one — Eleanor Clift — predicted what was clearly the most likely outcome. Monica Crowley predicted a narrow win for McCain, while Clarence Page declared the election ‘too close to call’ and Pat Buchanan simply stated that ‘the undecideds will decide this weekend’.

Four years later, the McLaughlin Group doesn’t seem to have learnt its lesson. Asked