Sorry, Alex, but Scots are going off the idea of independence

With two years to go, Alex Salmond’s campaign for a ‘Yes’ vote in the Scottish independence referendum is facing a big challenge to turn around public opinion. Ipsos MORI have a new poll out today, showing almost two-to-one opposition to independence, and support for Salmond’s cause has been declining all year.

This matches the findings of two other pollsters. YouGov found the split going from 33 ‘yes’/53 ‘no’ in January to 27-60 in August. And TNS-BMRB have it going from 35-44 in January to 28-53 this month.

So the SNP has its work cut out — it needs to change plenty of Scottish minds if its even going to make the 2014 vote close. They seem to be testing out messages to achieve this, having commissioned a YouGov poll last week.

The first message is that, as Nicola Sturgeon put it at the SNP conference in Perth today, ‘it is fundamentally better for all of us if decisions affecting Scotland are taken by the people who care most about Scotland — that is, the people of Scotland’.