Soaring inflation could tank Rishi Sunak’s Tory leadership bid

Wages are rising. The economy is growing. The stock market is on the way up, and exports are booming. As he prepares for a long summer trying to persuade the membership of the Conservative party to make him prime minister, Rishi Sunak probably wishes he could be transported to some parallel universe where he could boast about his record as Chancellor. The trouble is, he is stuck with this one: and the news is relentlessly bad.

This morning, inflation was up yet again, hitting a 40-year-high of 9.4 per cent. Yesterday, it was real wages falling sharply, as workers’ income failed to keep up with rising prices. Over the next six weeks, as Sunak is out on the hustings hustling for votes, it is only going to get worse and worse. We are likely to see a fall in GDP (people taking a couple of days off because of the heat won’t have helped output); a record trade deficit, exceeding even last month’s terrible figures; a steep rise in interest rates making mortgages more costly; and a falling pound, making holidays more expensive.