Maybe the Office for National Statistics should stop seasonally adjusting its data. That is the lesson from today’s retail sales figures, which show a strong rebound in sales volumes of 3.4 per cent in January. All areas of spending were up except clothing, which was down by 1.4 per cent.
The overall figures might sound promising, but all they really do is to cancel out December’s fall of 3.3 per cent. Look at the figures for the past three months and sales are pretty flat, falling by 0.2 per cent in that time. The high street is in a stupor, just like the economy as a whole.
Why did retail appear to fall into a deep hole in December? The answer lies in the seasonal adjustment. December is a month when we are expected to spend with abandon as we buy Christmas presents and stock up on food for the festive season.
Comments
Join the debate for just $5 for 3 months
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for $5.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just $5 for 3 monthsAlready a subscriber? Log in