Scotland’s two tribes are more divided than ever – they see reality differently

Expectations just keep increasing for the SNP. Today’s Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times puts the nationalists on an eye-popping 48 percent of the vote in Scotland. Labour activists and candidates report better that on the fabled doorsteps the response they’re getting is much better than that recorded by the opinion pollsters. Doubtless, in some constituencies, this is true. But it seems unlikely to be enough. The ship will not go down with all hands but there will still, it seems, be few survivors.

This remains a strange election. Ordinarily I’d say the straw-clutchers are hopelessly mistaken. The numbers do not lie. They are worth more than anecdotal evidence and gut-checking hunches. And yet, can it really be the case that the SNP will win as many as 50 seats in Scotland? The bounds of possibility are being tested here, to say nothing of the limits of our imagination.

And to think it is only four months since folk met suggestions the SNP might win more than 30 seats with chuckling disbelief.