Prepare for Sturgeon’s ‘Indyref 2’ stunt

This is the time of year when economists and political scientists make their predictions for the upcoming 12 months. Will we finally see the back of Covid and economic recovery? Will Boris Johnson survive as Prime Minister?

In Scotland, the politerati are speculating on what Nicola Sturgeon’s next move on the constitution will be. It seems likely the Scottish government will introduce a bill, without the agreement of Westminster, on a second independence referendum. This is expected to be challenged at the UK Supreme Court. The most likely outcome of that is the referendum bill failing on the grounds that it goes beyond the constitutional powers of the devolved parliament — a UK Supreme Court case earlier this year reinforced the view this will be the most probable conclusion.

At the same time, Nicola Sturgeon has announced that Scottish civil servants will be tasked with working on a ‘detailed prospectus’ for exiting the UK.