Scotland is getting sicker

For Scotland to stay at its current levels of health in 20 years’ time it would have to entirely eradicate cancer. That’s according to the Burden of Disease study published this morning by Public Health Scotland.  

The report found that although the country’s population is projected to fall in the next two decades, its annual ‘disease burden’ – the impact of morbidity and mortality on population health – is forecast to increase by some 21 per cent. ‘In order to achieve a similar level of disease burden as 2019’, they say it would need to be reduced by 17 per cent by 2043 – ‘which is equivalent to eradicating the entire disease burden of cancer in 2019.’ 

Most of the future disease burden will affect 65- to 84-year-olds, a demographic which is expected to grow as an overall share of Scotland’s population, despite the nation’s headcount shrinking. There was better news for younger age groups, where disease was forecast to be 10 per cent lower in children and young people between the ages of 16 to 24.