Scotland can’t afford to remain part of the Union

Tony Blair’s biggest achievement was delivering a referendum that unified Scotland behind devolution and gave all parties a stake in its success. Boris Johnson is wrong to say it was ‘a disaster’, but in being wrong is helping precipitate the logical next step: independence. The opinion polls that show a growing majority for Scottish independence will mystify those who believe the lazy, metropolitan idea that independence is an emotional fantasy — all Braveheart, Bannockburn and bagpipes. How, they ask, could a band of Caledonian romantics ever convince the canny Scots to opt for such a thing?

But what if the case for independence was a highly sophisticated position advocated by one of the most popular political leaders in the world? It is now supported by 64 per cent of those aged under 65, according to one of the latest polls. The Spectator, while founded by a Scot, has never supported the idea of his homeland’s independence. But its readers rightly pride themselves on reading different points of view. I seek not your support but your understanding as I try to explain what is really going on here.

The problem for Scotland is that it cannot afford to remain on the UK’s glide path. Staying in the Union is riskier than independence. Voters can see that.

So why now? Brexit is the biggest part of the answer. Not just the fact of it but the manner of it. Brexit has become the emblem of a parting of perspective, outlook, ambition and values. Scottish voters want Scotland to return to Europe. It is true that Boris Johnson and his unpopularity in Scotland doesn’t help the Unionists’ case. But Scottish voters are not stupid and won’t make a permanent decision just to escape a prime minister whose premiership is as ‘deciduous as autumn leaves’. The issue is not him so much as the system that created him — and when he goes, as he will, that will remain.