When David Cameron sits down for lunch with Nicolas Sarkozy today, he is bound to ask
his host how the presidential election is going. In response, President Sarkozy is likely to break into one his wide-faced smiles, and begin moving about energetically, as he tends to do when he is
excited. Forget the polls that put Francois Hollande ahead in a two-way race. It is too early to tell what people really think and, crucially, it won’t be a two-person race. It is a five-person,
two-round election. And so far, Sarkozy is doing very well.
Besides Sarkozy and Hollande, four other candidates could make a difference to the outcome: Marine Le Pen, François Bayrou, Eva Joly and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Each one could rob the Sarkozy and Hollande of the top spot in the first round.
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