Sarah Palin Will Not Be the Republican Nominee

Peter Beinart says the GOP is “her party now”. Robert Lane Greene at the Economist says “she has to be considered the front-runner.” Jon Chait and David Frum agree. So does Paul Mirengoff. Andrew Sullivan, unsurprisingly, asks “who can beat her?” Standing athwart this tide of pessimism – for none of those cited here want Palin to be the Republican nominee – are Ross Douthat and Daniel Larison.

I agree with Douthat and Larison. The case for presidential-nominee Palin rests upon the weakness of the field putatively lined up against her. (Assuming she runs herself, as I think she will.) It ignores the weaknesses of her own candidacy. Her support is deep but narrow and it is hard to see where she can win new supporters and those that she has already are not, probably, sufficiently numerous to win the nomination. How many currently undecided voters will break for Palin – the one candidate about whom almost everyone has already made up their mind? She is, if this is true, close to her maximum level of support already.