Russia’s ‘hunger plan’ is back

Until this week, the prospect of global famine had disappeared from the headlines, but earlier in Russia’s war against Ukraine, a sinister possibility had begun to take shape.

Ukraine is a breadbasket. Its produce feeds the world. And Russia, knowing this, hatched a plan. Its soldiers could wreck Ukrainian farmland and kill its farmers. Russians would steal and sell all the Ukrainian grain it could. And the Black Sea – a vital artery through which most of Ukraine’s food exports travelled – would be blockaded by the Russian navy. Food shipments would not be let through. The world would starve, Ukraine’s economy would suffer, and – in Vladimir Putin’s mind – he would be the victor.

Most of the Arab world, the Indian subcontinent, and Africa relies to some degree on imported food. Food from Russia and Ukraine used to constitute a plurality of the calories consumed in, for example, Egypt and Lebanon.