Russia’s war on Ukraine: the lessons so far

The sheer complexity – and horror – of Russia’s war on Ukraine makes it difficult to distil the essential points. To take only one example, the battlefront north of Kiev, where the Russian convoy is stalled, is significantly different from that along the Black Sea, where Russian forces from Crimea have made substantial progress. A third front, in the east, is consolidating in Russia’s favour, though the fight was much harder and longer than Moscow expected.

Amid this complexity, it is important to summarise what we know so far:

1.

Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine appears to be the most catastrophic strategic mistake since the end of the Cold War and by far the most dangerous. Within a week, his invasion completely transformed Europe, militarily and diplomatically. It revitalised Nato, prompted Germany to reverse decades of concessionary policies toward Russia, and saw Berlin emerge as Europe’s leading voice in opposition to the Kremlin.