Russia’s conundrum in the Caucasus

For the second time since fighting began on 27 September, a humanitarian ceasefire was agreed between the warring countries of Azerbaijan and Armenia — and, for the second time, it was quickly broken.

Momentum is now firmly in Azerbaijan’s favour, with Azeri forces capturing a number of towns and settlements in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. These could subsequently be used to launch an assault on the capital, Stepanakert, which has already come under multiple bouts of artillery fire. Armenia has retaliated with long-range bombardments of its own against Azerbaijan’s second city of Ganja, an act that has caused outrage in Baku as the city is comfortably outside the disputed territory.

An attack on Stepanakert (a densely-populated city of 55,000 people) would be a bloody business for both the attackers and defenders, but it appears that it can now only be prevented by an internationally-arbitrated peace settlement — and nothing so far has suggested one will be accepted, let alone enforced.