The backlash in Russia to Putin’s war is now visibly getting underway. For the first time, the President risks becoming a disappointment to all sides of the political spectrum. Those who advocate for war see his military efforts in Ukraine as flaky and inadequate. Those who oppose it see those same actions as war crimes – both against Ukraine and Russia, their homeland.
Waging war is a costly business. In April alone, Russia received 133 billion roubles less in oil and gas revenues than expected, and a fall in the standard of living is inevitable. Previously all dissent against the regime was neutralised by cash inflows and Putin’s pact with his people: ‘Accept my lasting rule, and in return you’ll get pension increases, bonuses and permitted travel abroad.’ Now this is in tatters and the only justification for his regime is ‘Don’t you know there’s a war on?’ and ‘You shouldn’t change horses mid-stream.’
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