Russia is militarising its economy

The ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine isn’t a war – there’s a law and a possible maximum sentence (though no one seems to have faced it yet) of 15 years in prison to stop you claiming it is in Russia. Yet Russia does seem to be inching towards a wartime economy, for all Vladimir Putin’s recent bullishness.

At the recent (if rather sparsely-attended) St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin struck a triumphalist note, crowing that ‘the economic blitzkrieg against Russia never had any chances of success,’ and ‘gloomy predictions about the Russian economy’s future didn’t come true.’

That’s both true and not true. There has been no meltdown, not least thanks to eight years of conscious sanctions-proofing in Russia, and down to the financial wizardry of technocrats like Central Bank chair Elvira Nabiullina. Yet economic war, like the mills of God, grinds slowly.

Already, Russia is heading for a year-on-year decline in GDP of up to 15 per cent, and inflation has hit 17 per cent.