This failed coup will be just the beginning

Yevgeny Prigozhin has just exposed the full extent of Vladimir Putin’s weakness. In less than 24 hours, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group made extraordinary progress – taking control of the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of the Southern Miliary District, and posing the most serious challenge to Putin’s leadership. The president did not look all-powerful, but unable to control Prigozhin as he said his 25,000 troops were willing to march on Moscow.

Back on 9 May, when Prigozhin’s challenge to Vladimir Putin first became evident, I argued in The Spectator against the idea that Putin was ‘in charge’ of the situation. My analysis was based on the sense – confirmed since then – that Prigozhin’s complaints about Wagner ammunition and attacks on a certain ‘happy grandpa’ running the war effort seriously undermined Putin’s authority.

Such arguments are not meant to happen in Putin’s system. Minions are allowed to attack each other, but never undermine the vertical structure.