Russia flounders as Kyiv gears up for its counter-offensive

According to Moscow, Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive has begun, and has begun badly for Kyiv. Of course, we need to treat the Russian account with all necessary scepticism, but the evidence is that the droney, phony war stage of this campaign season is ending and the real fighting is beginning.

The unverified Russian claim is that Kyiv launched a ‘large-scale offensive in five sectors of the front in the South Donetsk direction’, which was beaten back at the cost of some 250 Ukrainian casualties and the loss of a full 16 tanks and 24 other armoured vehicles. Even by the Russian account, this attack comprised just six mechanised and two tank battalions from two of their newly created brigades, the 23rd and the 31st, or some 3,500 troops in all. This would make it significant, but hardly the kind of serious assault Kyiv could launch. Instead, if real, it could represent a feint, a probing attack, or the advance guard of a larger offensive.

At the same time, there are accounts of fighting at Soledar northeast of the recently-captured city of Bakhmut, and Vuhledar, towards the southern Zaporizhia region.