Russia and Ukraine’s fate is about to be decided

The first phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has ended with a decisive defeat for Russian forces in the north of the country. The large scale Russian advances in the north west and north east were halted in the outskirts of Kyiv. Russian forces failed to take the encircled north eastern cities of Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv and have subsequently been forced to withdraw to their starting positions in Belarus and Russia itself. The discovery of horrific Russian atrocities committed against the Ukrainian civilian population in the newly liberated towns has hardened Ukrainian determination to take back all of their lost territory rather than accept any ceasefire along current lines. In determining the outcome of this war, the next fortnight is likely to prove crucial. The long-term nature of the conflict – for both Russia and Ukraine – will be decided by the coming offensive.

In the south west, the Russian attacks failed to encircle or capture the key city of Mykolaiv on the route to Odessa and have also been halted in attempts to advance northwards along the western bank of the Dnieper river towards Kryvyi Rih.