Hardly anyone would’ve predicted it just a few weeks ago, but libertarian congressman
Ron Paul now looks most likely to win the Iowa caucuses, with just a fortnight to go. Two new polls show Paul leading Mitt Romney, as Newt Gingrich collapses to third – or even fourth –
place. According to Nate Silver’s projections (based on the polls and historical results), Paul now has a 52 per cent
chance of winning, compared to Romney’s 28 per cent chance, Gingrich’s 8 per cent and Rick Perry’s 7 per cent.
Paul has taken the lead largely thanks to a sharp decline in Gingrich’s poll numbers. Nationally, his lead over Romney has dropped from 14 points to just 2 in less than two weeks, according to Gallup. In Iowa, he’s fallen from 22 per cent (and the lead) last week to 14 per cent (third place) this week, according to PPP,
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