The question after last week’s presidential debate was not who had won — there was a clear consensus that Mitt Romney had got the better of Barack Obama — but how much difference it would make to the race. Going into the debate on Wednesday night, Obama was the clear favourite to win re-election, with a five-point lead in the polls. Nate Silver’s Fivethirtyeight forecast gave him an 86 per cent chance of victory. But, thanks to his strong debate performance and the President’s uncharacteristically weak one, Romney has narrowed that gap.
Different polls paint different pictures of exactly what effect the debate had on the race, though most show it moving towards Romney initially before going back slightly in Obama’s direction. Gallup’s tracker found Romney pulling even with Obama at 47-47 in the three days after the debate, from a five-point deficit in the three days leading up to it.
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