Ne’er mistake correlation with cause, I know. But, during the Brown premiership,
the correlation between petrol prices and poll ratings was still pretty striking. Mike Smithson graphed it early last year, but the basic story was this: the Tories enjoyed their
biggest poll lead over Labour when petrol prices were at their highest, and Labour closed the gap to only 1 percent when petrol prices were at their lowest. At the very least, it gives us a
hypothesis to work from: prices up, the government suffers; prices down, the government recovers. And it looks as though we’ll be able to test that hypothesis soon enough. Today’s
Express reports that – thanks to rising VAT, fuel duty
and oil prices – petrol may soon soar to £1.40 a litre.
It all keys into an argument that Allister Heath made
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