His presidential campaign is just a fortnight old, and already Rick Perry is soaring in
the polls. The three major national surveys conducted since his announcement all give Perry
double-digit leads over previous frontrunner Mitt Romney. He has also, importantly, taken the lead in Iowa and is now
odds on to win both there and in South
Carolina come February.
This is certainly an encouraging position for a new candidate, but history suggests that Perry supporters should temper their optimism with a heavy dose of caution. Until the autumn of 2007, Rudy Giuliani led the Republican field by a similar margin to the one Perry has now. And Hillary Clinton’s lead over Obama was even more commanding. Neither went on to win their party’s nomination. But a race with a more striking resemblance to the one going on now is that for the 2004 Democratic nomination.
In the summer of 2003, the primaries looked like a close four-way fight between former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, Congressman Dick Gephardt and Senators Joe Lieberman and John Kerry.
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