Now that Newark is a no-go, Nigel Farage will be turning his thoughts to where he will stand as an MP. He said this week that returning its first MP will be a huge breakthrough for Ukip, so choosing a seat that he can win is vital. After declining to stand in the 15 by-elections that Ukip have contested since 2010, it looks as if Farage will wait until 2015 to run for Parliament.
Coffee House understands that, ideally, Farage would like the seat to fit three criteria. Firstly, it needs to be a marginal seat. Secondly, he wants to have some local connection — he feels his lack of any roots in Buckingham caused him problems when he stood there in 2010. And thirdly, there would be no incumbent MP, lessening the challenge among the local community. Here are seven seats that either fit, or come close to fitting, Farage’s criteria:
South Thanet
Marginal: Yes — Tories took seat in 2010 with 7 per cent swing
Local connection: Yes — Farage lives in Kent
No incumbent: Yes — Laura Sandys (Con) is standing down
Electoral Calculus prediction: 66 per cent chance of CON hold
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