The news that the Tory lead has dropped to just five points, according to a Times/YouGov poll yesterday, has been dismissed in some quarters as an exception to the polls, rather than the rule. However, even if you don’t buy that the Tory lead over Labour is now at its lowest since Theresa May came to power, it can’t be denied that the Conservative campaign has hit a wobble.
I understand projections for the election result have shifted dramatically. The internal ‘ceiling’ (the best case scenario) has gone from a majority of near 200 in week one, to a majority around the 80 mark. The ‘floor’ is now a hung Parliament — which is a worse case scenario and still an unlikely one. In response to the numbers, the Conservatives said they would not comment on ‘polls or projections’.
The mood in CCHQ is one of annoyance verging on anger.
Get Britain's best politics newsletters
Register to get The Spectator's insight and opinion straight to your inbox. You can then read two free articles each week.
Already a subscriber? Log in
Comments
Join the debate for just $5 for 3 months
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for $5.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just $5 for 3 monthsAlready a subscriber? Log in