Remainers will win. The powerful always do

Before the referendum, I predicted behind closed doors that even if Leave improbably prevailed, Britain’s political establishment would ensure that for all practical purposes the UK stayed in the EU. ‘So Britain wouldn’t be called a “member” anymore,’ I supposed to my husband, ‘but, you know, an “associated affiliate once removed” or something.’ I might as well have said, ‘We’ll join a customs partnership.’ I’ve never been more depressed by being right.

The drift seems unmistakable. The white flag is up on the single market for goods, the customs union, the ECJ; Hammond has been equivocal about fishing rights; cracks are appearing in opposition to free movement — and this is before the UK compromises still further during negotiations proper (e.g., on services). You don’t get de facto membership without paying de facto dues, so kiss the savings on EU contributions goodbye. So far, Brexit doesn’t mean Brexit. It doesn’t mean anything.