Relying on students' predicted grades is a recipe for trouble

My daughter Leah was predicted a 5 in her English Literature exam. In the actual GCSE she sat at our local secondary in 2017, she got an 8, the equivalent of a starred A. I was delighted but not surprised. But while my daughter was able to prove her teacher wrong, what about those who this year will have to rely on predicted grades?

For Leah, such a situation would have been dreadful news. Two years after her GCSE English teacher under-predicted her, we found ourselves in the same situation again, but this time there was more than my daughter’s self-esteem to consider. Her academic future was at stake. In the autumn term of her final year at school, Leah was predicted ABB in her A levels. Great grades but not quite enough for her to get offers from the top universities where she was hoping to study.

Leah asked her teachers for higher predictions, pointing out that in her last exams she had achieved starred As in English, history and geography, the subjects she was now taking for A level.