Reform’s best bet could be in Wales

The great schism on the right of British politics was aptly displayed last week. On Wednesday night, as the Prime Minister attended a ‘pretty downbeat’ drinks reception at the Carlton Club, across town the real action was happening at the Boisdale restaurant in Canary Wharf. Some 300-odd journalists, MPs and donors flocked there to pay tribute to Nigel Farage on his 60th birthday, in an occasion that was somewhere between a reunion and a rally.

Much of the talk was about the forthcoming general election, with Farage himself teasing a return as leader of Reform UK. Taking to the stage in his blue velvet double-breasted jacket, he declared ‘This seems like the perfect occasion to make an announcement,’ before insisting ‘I genuinely haven’t made up my mind’. Reform are currently polling at around 16 per cent under Richard Tice and are predicted to cost the Tories 41 seats. Both numbers could rise higher if Farage chooses, Cincinnatus-like, to lay down his GB News microphone and return as leader once more.