Reform is a busted flush without Nigel Farage

Any insurgent political party needs a breakthrough moment. For the SNP, it was Winnie Ewing’s victory in the 1967 Hamilton by-election. For the SDP, it was Glasgow Hillhead in 1982. For Ukip, their success in the 2004 European Parliament elections was the moment the mainstream parties sat up and took notice. For Reform UK, such a moment should have occurred in the small hours of this morning. Except it didn’t.

The Blackpool South by-election was seemingly tailor-made for Richard Tice’s party. The town is classic Red Wall territory. The previous incumbent, Conservative Scott Benton, had resigned in disgrace, and you’d think Keir Starmer’s brand of north-London centrism would have little appeal with the locals. This isn’t just my assessment. When I spoke to Ben Habib, Reform’s co-deputy leader, on Times Radio in March, he said the party shouldn’t be judged on how it fared in the local elections, but by the Blackpool South by-election instead.