Red alert on Brown

It is an iron rule of politics that the more ecstatic the immediate reviews of a Budget, the more disastrous it is likely to prove for the country over the long term. Last week’s effort by Gordon Brown may yet prove to be in the grand tradition of Denis Healey’s 1975 performance — which was instantly popular, but ended with Britain begging for alms from the IMF. If you want evidence of the Budget’s ephemeral magic, it is there in the opinion polls. After weeks of closing the gap, the Tories appear to have sunk back to an eight-point deficit, according to a Guardian/ICM poll. After months in which the press have teased Gordon about his dwindling role — and his mysterious trips to China and Africa — he is back there at the centre of events, controlling the Labour narrative, steering his party, it seems, to an inevitable third term.