Do we already know the top two candidates in the Labour leadership contest? Tonight a poll by Survation for LabourList puts Rebecca Long-Bailey narrowly ahead of Keir Starmer for first preference votes on 42 per cent and 37 per cent respectively. There is a huge gap between these two and the other contenders: Jess Phillips is on 9 per cent, Lisa Nandy on 7 per cent and Emily Thornberry on 1 per cent.
The most powerful effect of a poll like this would be to polarise the contest so that members who want to stop the continuity Corbyn candidate, who is Long-Bailey, will think that Starmer is the only game in town. This is what happened in the 2015 contest: many members didn’t like what Liz Kendall was saying, but those who did agree with her also deserted her campaign as they didn’t think she had enough support to beat Jeremy Corbyn.
Britain’s best politics newsletters
You get two free articles each week when you sign up to The Spectator’s emails.
Already a subscriber? Log in
Comments
Join the debate for just £1 a month
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for £3.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just £1 a monthAlready a subscriber? Log in