Anthony King, the polling sage, has an op-ed in the Telegraph today setting out the polling case for why the Tories should go into the New Year in good heart. King notes that the Tories—who have led in the YouGov poll for the last 15 months with forty percent plus support—have not been in such a strong polling position since the poll tax did for Margaret Thatcher’s popularity. He also points out that anti-Tory tactical voting is likely to unwind at the next election with Labour’s lead among Lib Dem voters having fallen from 40 percent at the last election to 11 percent today.
But the prime reason for optimism for the Tories that King sets out is that the government is bound to be hurt politically by the reality of the recession:
“Labour’s spurt this autumn, which has already been partially reversed, is almost certain to look like a temporary blip in a long downward spiral. Next year will bring not only a stagnant housing market but home repossessions on a large scale, bankruptcies, reduced industrial output, factory closures, boarded-up shops in every high street, more expensive holidays abroad and mounting unemployment – with steeply increased taxes in prospect. Those in debt will suffer, but millions of conscientious savers will suffer just as badly, with the implosion of the stock market and interest rates at almost derisory low levels. Under those circumstances, it will be a near-miracle if Mr Brown and his Government prosper politically. As this year’s acute economic crisis becomes next year’s chronic crisis, the Tories have no need to be subtle. All they have to say is: “You got us into this mess and it’s clear you can’t get us out of it.” YouGov’s monthly findings already show that large majorities of voters are convinced Mr Brown bears “much of the responsibility for allowing borrowing and lending in this country to get out of hand in the first place”. Needless to say, the Conservatives’ greatest asset is that they are not in power. Fortunately for them, their greatest asset almost certainly trumps their greatest liability, which is that few voters have any idea how the Tories will comport themselves if and when they regain power. For the foreseeable future, the devil that voters don’t know looks like being more attractive than the one they do.”
As Anthony Wells has argued, Labour has risen in the polls because people think the economy will pull through. When it doesn’t, Labour’s standing is going to take a substantial hit to the benefit of the Tories.
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