Rachel Reeves has backed herself into a corner on the Budget

As a championship chess player, Rachel Reeves must know that the first few moves can be some of the most important of the game. In preparing her Budget, she appears to be starting her tenure as Chancellor from a position of strength. Her background in the Bank of England gives her institutional credibility, and the size of Labour’s majority means she faces little opposition in the Commons.

But the truth is that her room for manoeuvre has been dramatically limited by decisions she has already made. Unforced early errors, as well as an election strategy that prematurely took options off the table, have left her with only a handful of choices, fewer of which are palatable.

I was in the room the last time a chancellor fresh to government had the responsibility of delivering a new administration’s first Budget. As chief of staff to George Osborne in 2010, I knew that the decisions we made would not just affect millions that day but would set the tone and direction of the whole government for the next five years. We couldn’t afford missteps.

Reeves’s decision to abolish the winter fuel payment for all apart from the poorest pensioners is her most obvious early mistake. It may have saved her £1.5 billion, but it has cost her goodwill, both in the parliamentary Labour party and with the electorate. I can’t think of any previous chancellor who would have made that their first move in office. It’s a gambit which sacrificed pawns for no positional advantage. It’s little wonder that previous Treasury insiders, including Ed Balls, have questioned her political judgment.

Even bigger problems loom. Almost all the government’s political ambitions require significant increases in public spending, which will mean significant tax rises.