Quit Afghanistan, yes – but don’t declare victory

Military commanders, announced last weekend’s Sunday Telegraph, ‘have warned the Prime Minister that Afghanistan’s future could be jeopardised with al-Qa’eda returning to the country if foreign troops are withdrawn too quickly’. What the newspaper calls ‘senior sources’ have been singing and I don’t doubt the burden of their song is as reported. The same briefing process is under way in the United States, where the Pentagon is letting it be known that President Obama’s promised troop withdrawal after the American ‘surge’ is premature; that the Taleban are by no means beaten; and that the Afghan security forces whom Nato-Isaf are training are not yet ready to take the insurgency on unaided.

Here and in America the military top brass are, of course, a lobby with interests of their own to promote; but British coalition leaders — and in particular the Prime Minister — should not discount these murmurings simply because they are predictable. The murmurings may well be right. David Cameron and Barack Obama know this. But on present plans they intend to go ahead with the withdrawal even if evidence does emerge that the Afghan insurgency is far from beaten and the situation by no means under control. Let us be blunt: our leaders no longer have any confidence that western goals in Afghanistan are achievable. They hope that humiliation before or after we depart is avoidable, but if it is unavoidable then too bad: in that case they mean to cut and run; and, having run, to stay away regardless.

And they are right. In most wars one side has to give up eventually. In Kabul British and American leaders, like the Soviet leadership more than two decades ago, have decided that in this case the losing side will have to be us. If you think (as I do) that the Kremlin finally made a wise decision, then you should consider whether it might be the wisest decision for us too.