Putin’s secret weapon is fragility

As the dust settles on Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny that wasn’t, the consensus is clear: Vladimir Putin has been left weakened and vulnerable. Rebellions like this historically spell the beginning of the end of Russian authoritarian regimes, and observers are watching excitedly for signs of more vultures circling the Kremlin. But Putin’s weakness might, conversely, be the reason he clings on to power – at least for now.

That Putin was damaged by the events of last weekend seems obvious: a private businessman with an army of just 10,000 men crosses your border, calls you a liar, takes one of your military bases in Rostov, marches on Moscow and shoots down and kills at least 13 of your pilots. After first vowing to destroy him, Russia’s president instead has a friend talk him down and subsequently drops all charges. It’s hardly a good look for an all-powerful leader.

But strangely, official Kremlin reports, and Putin himself, is fully embracing the fragility of his position.