Is Ukraine winning its war against Russia? Watching the conflict through Twitter or broadcast media, you’d be forgiven for thinking so. Despite its overwhelming military superiority, Russia is taking casualties, momentum is stalling, and a succession of stirring stories – Ukrainian soldiers telling Russian troops to go ‘fuck yourself’ and ordinary Ukrainians rising up to stand in the way of Russian tanks – suggests undaunted resistance. The overwhelming volume of video and audio material posted is coming from the Ukrainian side. Combined with pessimistic statements from Russian figures, this gives the impression of an advance bogged down.
Take a step back, and Russian gains on the ground have been extremely rapid; by comparison, after three weeks of warfare, the actual Battle of Baghdad still lasted six days. Kiev looks unlikely to fall within 96 hours of the war beginning; Russia very likely did not expect it to. Putin retains substantial forces in reserve, and he has the option of changing tactics should he lose his patience.
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