Putin’s gas war endgame

What is the Kremlin’s gas war endgame? Based on the various statements from Gazprom, the foreign ministry, and Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, it’d be reasonable to conclude that it is getting western sanctions lifted. The message coming through is that the so-called technical issues that Nord Stream 1 is suffering from would be fixable, if not for the collective west’s ongoing economic embargo of Russia.

If this is what Putin actually wants, it would suggest that sanctions are having a large enough impact on Russia for them to use their major source of leverage. Russia has now substantially reduced its pipeline exports to Europe. Because of pipeline and liquefied natural gas capacity constraints, these are supplies that can’t be sold on anywhere else. Russia can mitigate some revenue loss through higher European gas prices. But that runs out of road if flows are zero, or close to it.

Of course, if the sanctions are damaging the Russian economy and Vladimir Putin thinks that Europe will stop buying Russian gas anyway, there’s a good reason to turn off the taps.