Putin miscalculated. Let’s not do the same

Only the Russian people can decide how long Putin remains in the Kremlin, but the invasion of Ukraine will likely shorten his reign. In a lengthy interview when he assumed power 22 years ago, Putin answered a question about the forced resignation of German Chancellor Helmut Kohl by saying that ‘after 16 years, any people – including the stable Germans – get tired of a leader’. Russians have been more patient, but they didn’t expect to be led into pariah status.

Change could come from within the political elite, many of whom are aware how counterproductive this war is for Russia, and some of whom feel shame for the suffering inflicted on Ukraine. They will recall that when the Soviet leadership replaced Nikita Khrushchev in October 1964, one of the charges brought against him was that he had undermined Soviet prestige and risked starting a nuclear war by installing missiles in Cuba.