Ten years ago, Putin saved Bashar al-Assad from certain defeat. Russia’s intervention raised Putin’s profile in the Middle East, and gave him some ground to claim that Russia was still a ‘great power’.
Assad’s fall shows that claim was without foundation. Distracted by the war in Ukraine, Putin has been unable to save his client, even if the Russians whisked Assad out of the country and provided him with political asylum.
It is too early to speak of Putin’s strategic defeat in the Middle East
It is, however, too early to speak of Putin’s strategic defeat in the Middle East. For now, at least, Russia still has its naval facility at Tartus and an airbase in Hmeimim. It has several thousand servicemen in Syria. It has shown no interest in pulling out, and will likely attempt to hold on to its military facilities, important as they are to Russia’s regional power projection (in particular towards Africa) and indeed as a marker of status.
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