Putin’s winning streak in European politics

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said triumphantly that ‘if Putin was seeking to divide the EU, to weaken Nato, and to break the international community, he has achieved the exact opposite.’

A month later, Vladimir Putin may be struggling on Ukraine’s battlefields but he has been on a winning streak in European politics. In both Serbia and Hungary, Kremlin-favoured incumbents were re-elected last weekend. If the tight polls are any indication, Putin may get lucky in the upcoming presidential election in France as well, providing an ample pay-off to Russia’s long-term investment in Europe’s far right and proving von der Leyen’s jubilation premature.

Both Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán owe their political success primarily to their own prowess as political actors and manipulators than to Moscow’s interference. Both, however, exploit their countries’ own versions of the post-imperial nostalgia that is currently fuelling Russia’s killing spree in Ukraine – using grievances about lost territories and prestige to get ahead.