Putin has failed to bring Europe to its knees

Unforeseen events which provoke global crises – such as Covid — have come to be known as ‘black swans’. By the same token, the end of 2022 has just been visited by a great big fluffy white swan.     Over the past 24 hours the main benchmark for European gas futures – the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), for gas to be delivered in February – has crashed below 80 Euros per MWh, taking it below the level it was on 23 February, the day before Russia invaded Ukraine. This, in the dead of a winter which we have been warned many times could see Europe’s shivering masses rioting in response to blackouts. It is beginning to look as if the continent might be able to get through the winter without the lights going out anywhere (at least not in response to gas shortages). Even more remarkably, wholesale gas prices have been falling in spite of a cold December in northern Europe.