Prigozhin’s death has exposed Putin’s weakness

So much is still unclear about the fate of Wagner group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, from whether he really did die in the private jet that plummeted to the ground in Russia’s Tver region to what caused the crash. In today’s Russia, after all, ‘mechanical problems’ could be anything from maintenance issues to the difficulty in flying when a bomb has blown a hole in your fuselage.

The odds are, though, that he is indeed dead. Putin himself offered lukewarm praise to the ‘talented businessman’ who nonetheless ‘made serious mistakes in his life’ (one of which may have been reassuring Putin’s guarantees). Three things would follow from this.

First of all, that Wagner’s fate is sealed. Even its operations in Africa are unlikely to survive long term, given the degree to which they were bound in personal deals, illicit financial flows and corrupt understandings brokered by Prigozhin himself. Other Russian mercenary companies such as Redut, run by Prigozhin’s arch-rival Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, may try to muscle in on Wagner’s business, but it is unlikely they will simply be able to replace it.

Secondly, that the Kremlin had decided it could close the book on its investigations of Wagner’s recent mutiny, and that it had identified those who supported and sympathised with it.