There’s been much hullaballoo this afternoon over a Populus poll that shows a Labour lead of one point. The usual caveats apply (it’s just one poll!); but, nevertheless, this sample adds to the sense that Ed Miliband is in difficulty. There is, incidentally, only 419 days to go until election day.
If the Populus poll was disappointing, then this projection compiled by Stephen Fisher of Oxford University could have Miliband reaching for the scotch:
‘Forecast Election Day Seats:
Con : 307
Lab : 285
LD : 31
Con largest party, but short of a majority by 19’
A dismal prospect for Labour; but there are also worries for the Tories because they are not yet benefitting from Miliband’s malaise and the economic recovery. The Populus poll has them unchanged on 34% and they are unmoved on Fisher’s projections. Needless to say, UKIP’s support is healthy – 13% according to Populus.
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