Politics: Why a double dip won’t save Ed Miliband

It wasn’t meant to be this way. The Tories used to joke that after a year and a half in office they would be the most unpopular government in history. Instead, they find themselves five points ahead in the polls. To their surprise, and Labour’s consternation, they are in a far stronger position now than they were at the last election.

To understand what’s going on, look no further than this week’s vote on welfare reform. It epitomised three of the most important trends in British politics: the addition of a harder edge to the Tory modernising agenda, the strategic confusion afflicting Labour, and the disconnect between the Lib Dem leaders and their party. Together, these trends help explain why the Tories are ahead even as the economy is contracting. At the next election, they may well deliver a Conservative majority.

The Tory failure to win outright in 2010 weighed heavily on George Osborne, the party’s chief electoral strategist.