Politics: Alex Salmond’s three-card trick

Not since 1745 has the union been in such danger. It now seems certain that there’ll either be a referendum on Scotland leaving the union in 2014 or that Westminster will have to resort to using the Supreme Court to stop Holyrood holding the vote, handing the Nationalists a huge propaganda victory.
Support for independence in Scotland may stand at about a third, having not moved much over the years. But the campaign for it will be led by the most able politician in Scotland, the tactical equal of any politician in Britain, who runs the best campaign machine in the British Isles. No one should underestimate Alex Salmond and the Scottish National Party.

David Cameron decided to act, I understand, after learning that Salmond was on manoeuvres. His aides had heard that Salmond would use the Hugo Young lecture later this month to announce that there would be a referendum in 2014, the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn. Crucially, it was thought that the First Minister was planning a three-option vote: independence, the status quo and ‘Devo Max’, a system by which everything apart from foreign affairs and defence would be devolved to Scotland.

This was, in a way, an admission from Salmond that he can’t yet win an independence referendum. Polls show that when the three questions are asked the halfway house is the most popular option. A three-question vote would suit Salmond only if he thought he’d lose on independence, but win some kind of consolation prize. He could spin a defeat for independence as a victory. The Scottish parliament would have more powers than before, the country would be a step closer to independence and his own reputation would be enhanced. One Downing Street source says that they couldn’t let the Scottish National Party hold a three-question referendum ‘as it is so rigged in their favour’.