Poland is Ukraine’s best friend in Europe. But no alliance can ever be entirely unconditional, and this is as true of the Poland–Ukraine bond as of any other. Poland, which has supplied Ukraine with tanks and fighter jets since the start of the war with Russia, has now said it will stop supplying weapons. The reason for the fall out is one that has been simmering for months: Ukraine’s grain.
Since Russia withdrew its Turkish-negotiated free pass for grain exported from Ukraine ports in July, Moscow has been targeting Ukraine’s grain infrastructure at Odesa and elsewhere. As a result, while some neutral vessels are still carrying export cargoes (a laden Turkish-owned ship left Ukrainian port Chornomorsk a couple of days ago for Israel, and more voyages are planned), shipowners and insurers are still jittery, and much wheat needs to find other ways out.
Kyiv, to put it bluntly, needs Warsaw more than Warsaw needs Kyiv
The obvious alternative destination is Poland, if only because getting bulk cargoes into the rest of Europe is expensive.
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