Pipeline politics: what happens if Putin cuts off Europe’s gas?

The price of Brent Crude oil was hovering at $100 a barrel as Germany halted approval of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia in response to Putin’s latest aggression. The oil price is five times its low point in 2020 — and the name itself, from the now-defunct Brent field in the North Sea, is a reminder of the UK’s energy vulnerability. ‘But only 3 per cent of our gas comes from Russia’ is irrelevant because we pay world prices for oil and gas from Norway, the US and the Gulf — prices driven both by physical constraints and global market sentiment. A cut-off of Russian gas supplied via Ukraine, for example, would directly affect only Slovakia, Austria and Italy, but you can be sure it will notch the prices we pay higher.

What happens next? If Russia halts all other energy supplies to Europe (through Poland, Belarus and Turkey and direct to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline) it also cuts off half its foreign currency earnings.